By James A. Gibbs

Judy and I celebrated our New Year’s Eve in Cairo, on a tour of Egypt and Jordan sponsored by the Metropolitan Museum of Art. The trip had been on our “bucket list” for many years, and the opportunity to see it through the eyes of MET guides made it even more irresistible.

Of course we shared the amazement that every visitor experiences on seeing the structures and monuments of these ancient lands for the first time, and we were almost overwhelmed by the immensity of the scale of time, space and history that our tour encompassed.  We expected that our books and cassettes would have better prepared us for what we’d see, but they fell far short of actuality.

However compelling as the old sights were for us, as we traveled we became increasingly conscious of events unfolding in the eastern Mediterranean Sea that may change the fortunes and politics of the surrounding region for decades to come.  Only recently announced, a huge new natural gas field, the Leviathan, was discovered in June 2010 by Noble Energy Inc., an Israeli company, and several other international players.  The Leviathan is situated 81 miles west of Haifa in the Levant Basin, a rich hydrocarbon area and one of the world’s largest offshore gas finds of the past decade.  The discovery well was drilled to a depth of 16,900 feet, where it encountered field reserves estimated to be as much as 16 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas.  A deeper extension of the well could penetrate a formation estimated to contain 9 tcf.  In addition, the Leviathan gas field may contain 4.2 billion barrels of oil. The field is located 29 miles southwest of another large gas reserve, the Tamar gas field, which was discovered in 2009 and is also operated by Noble Energy Inc.

Israel is almost completely reliant on imported oil, producing less than 4,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) of its 250,000 bopd demand.  If the Leviathan pans out, it could produce enough oil to satisfy Israel’s requirements for two decades. In addition, potential reserves of natural gas could make Israel a net natural gas exporter for the first time ever.  Discussions are in progress for a major pipeline to be laid across the floor of the Mediterranean to deliver natural gas into Italy for further distribution.  Conceivably, sales could also be made into Egypt, Jordan and other nearby countries. In any event, the discoveries dramatically change the geo-political framework of the area.   

As presently configured, the Levant Basin is triangular-shaped, lying just offshore of Israel and Lebanon, and perhaps extending as far north as Syria. The United States Geological Service (USGS) estimates that 122 tcf of undiscovered, recoverable natural gas may be contained in the Levant Basin province.  This compares favorably with the USGS natural gas estimates of 85 tcf in the SW Wyoming province, 73 tcf in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve, 70 tcf in the Appalachian Basin, and 70 tcf in the Western Gulf Basin province of Texas and Louisiana.  It will take much more exploration and drilling to ultimately determine if the estimates are reasonable.

Such immense reserves could conceivably be a boon for the entire eastern Mediterranean region, producing much needed energy to neighboring countries and revenue to the working and royalty interest owners.  As can be expected however, it will take time to determine how revenue is to be allocated.  Israeli officials are already suggesting that now that the fields have been discovered, terms of dividing the income between investors and the government may be re- determined.  Furthermore, although Israel claims exclusive rights to the basin, Lebanon, Syria and perhaps other countries in the area can be expected to demand a share.  It will take time to negotiate terms.  Meanwhile, new field discoveries in the Levant basin can be anticipated. 

Although in the past Egypt and Israel have cooperated on a few joint petroleum ventures in the Sinai, history has not been on the side of peaceful negotiations among neighboring countries for cooperative ventures or wealth sharing.  Nevertheless, the recent discoveries in the Levant Basin offer exciting new possibilities for discussions of potential projects that would benefit all the peoples and governments of the region.  What a great New Year’s present for the world that would be!